Attended a webinar (monthly) called HedgeD from Morgan Creek Capital today and took some investing notes that I want to share with my "Women Who Invest" Facebook group. Didn't see a good way to share it inside of Facebook - so putting my notes here for all to see. Sharing is caring, right? Here are my notes (along with my commentary).
So the market's going all crazy right now - new all time highs, everyone is a day trader, and looking a little more closely at these stock prices, the market caps are 20x, 28x, way higher than even revenues. Just so crazy expensive - and yet, when I look at these stock trading groups, people are pumping their hard earned dollars into these over priced assets. I worry.
October 2018-Present. The S&P is up 10%, which is about 5% a year (not really great). In reality, the money is actually down 40% (people just don't realize this yet.) During that same period, GLD is up 60%. Aren't we supposed to "buy cheap, sell high". People are buying high these days.... and they'll be forced to sell low. Again, in that same time period, Gold Corp is up 155%, Newman Gold is up 110%, Amazon up 55%, C Limited (Asia) is up 900%, Twilio is up 180%, and JD.com (Chinese) is up 120%.
So passive funds (index funds) are going crazy too. Everyone is putting money in, and by everyone, it's the regular people (who are not your trained professional investors). Index funds do well when the money supply is high (like right now). So more money = higher prices. Eventually, the money supply will slow down and this will go negative, fast. And so if you take a step back, and look at the S&P for example over the last 20 years, compound return is only 5%. That's TERRIBLE.
Stocks are even worse. People are buying things at stupid prices. Snowflake is the poster child for this craziness (it's at 227 times earnings or revenue.) --- WAY TOO EXPENSIVE. Zoom is at 100x revenue. And on top of it, everyone is being the same thing (the FAB4) - Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Facebook.... the Valuations are too high. It's not sustainable.
Remarks on Wall Street versus Main Street. Wall Street are the professional investors. Main Street are the speculators and newly-minted "day traders". All of this money is going into stocks - and what people need to do is take a step back and realize, there's no market recovery happening. COVID19 is exacerbating inequality everywhere. Only 41% of Americans had ANY savings at all before COVID (so there are a LOT of people hurting right now.). This year alone, we're going to see over 46% of Americans become food insecure. 30% of kids that are supposed to be remote learning don't have a laptop or internet. Those that have will do even better, and those that do not have will do even worse. He said it'll be a k-shaped recovery.
The American economy is driven by consumer spending. Again, no market recovery coming. Consumer spending (even with perceived increases this summer) is still down 30% from April. High income earners are spending as a percentage 50% LESS than low income earners. Let that sink in. That means less high income earners traveling, eating out, going to bars, shopping - that hurts small businesses, restaurants, who hire even more of the low income earners. So, if Consumer Spending = GDP = S&P..... then the S&P will be in BIG trouble very shortly.
So why are the stock prices even higher? And a significant amount of the stock is going up for non earning companies. This is not sustainable. 47% of the Russell 2000 are NONearners. 15-20% of US companies are NOT profitable, they have more debt than profit (called "zombie companies" or "Stocks"). The Stock market is a raging mania and being driven by "retail investor" or more precisely, speculators. For instance, there were 3,000,000 NEW first time investors on Robinhood. And over 20% of all stock trading is coming from retail. On the otherwise, stock buybacks are not happening as much any more. Companies are not buying stocks. Bankruptcies and bad debt is soaring. And it's starting to trend that Biden will likely be the winner of the election, which means, HIGHER TAXES. Equity market is falling down.
There are still good companies out there. Look for EBITA margins greater than 50%. Look for companies that are in the digitization, consumerization off financial products, payments, etc.... you can access them through relationships (private equity side).
Then they went into their sales schpeel on hedge funds. Average hedge funds are up 3.9%, and the best are up 30%, while the average stock has had almost NO return over the past 3 years. Choose wisely.
Hope these investing notes from the webinar help give at least a perspective and is informational.
P.S. Let me know if any questions or if you want to connect. I'm happy to connect you with these folks as well. Sharing is caring! Also check out the podcast, HedgeD -- their first interview is really good with John Burbank.
I just read The Profile by Polina Marinova Pompliano (see above photo) and "Words and Character" do not carry enough weight these days. By the way, I highly recommend subscribing to The Profile, if you haven't yet. I was a fan when she did the Term Sheet at Fortune Magazine - and continue to be a fan. Today's Profile Dossier is on Hugh Jackman. I love this actor... and after reading about him today, I love him even more.
At the end of the article, there is a list of "techniques to try".... and one of them really hit a chord with me. Big deep one that's been on my mind a lot recently.
Keep your word even if it doesn’t benefit you: The most important lesson that Jackman’s father taught him was that promises are sacred. His dad taught him to always stay true to his word — even if it turns out there’s a better option or something will benefit him more. “If you get an invitation to go across the road to your mate’s place for dinner, and then an hour later, you get an invitation from the queen of England to go to Buckingham Palace, you stick by your first one,” Jackman says. “You always keep your word.” This, Jackman believes, is the only way you become a trustworthy human.
From about 2007 to about 2015, I had a really good friend. We met through salsa dancing and I remember just being so moved by the fresh energy and zest for life she used to carry. She's off the charts amazing as a dancer too - I'd often sit on the side watching her. She had a way of dancing that was so detailed and natural - it was like watching an exotic car move effortlessly in a sea of Toyotas and Hondas. Beautiful. I tend to just fall in love with the people I bring into my life - and perhaps I put them on a pedestal too. Wonderful treasures of laughter, hugs, memories, and more.
We went to each other's weddings. Our friends became her friends, and vice versa.
Then it started (again). I'm not sure if it's me. It's happened several times now where since I'm the only thing common, I can't help but think it's me. Maybe I'm not good enough. Maybe I'm just not that interesting. Maybe no one really wants to be friends with me in the first place. Am I even worth anyone's time? It's a downward spiral of sadness, and self-pity.
We'd be making plans to visit San Francisco, and of course, I'd send a note to my usual favorite friends to see while there. I'm usually an introvert and seek more of those intimate conversations with family/friends. Only if time is truly limited, I'll throw everyone into one big dinner or drinks...
She was on this list of friends I truly enjoyed seeing. The first time it happened, we were supposed to meet for a drink at happy hour. Then about an hour before, she was tired so wanted to push it to later. It became a dinner plan. Then around dinner, it became dessert. Then around dessert time, it became after dinner drinks... then late night drinks... then the next day.
My husband also thought it was weird. We brushed it off the first few times as oh well, the timing must have been difficult... oh bummer, they must be really busy... ...
Words and Character. Shouldn't they mean something?
Then on subsequent attempts on following trips to San Francisco, plans would be made and broken again and again. And the questions of, who else is going to be there? Is anyone else going to be meeting up with us? ... Is there anyone notable that she would miss meeting if she didn't come out to meet up with me? ...
It just was not working out. I suppose I could have confronted her candidly about what I was experiencing. Then again, the relationship at that point now had a giant chasm of doubt in between. I did not trust that I knew anything about her anymore. The character and values that are so important to me didn't seem to match. Then I had to make a conscious decision and remove her from my mental list of folks that I wanted to see, and/or wanted to see me... I took it as perhaps I'm just not that exciting enough for her. Perhaps not beautiful enough. Perhaps not influential enough. Just not enough - and perhaps most definitely, we're not a fit for each other anymore. It was causing me so much heartache so I quietly went a different direction.
Experiences where family and friends don't keep their word puts a dent in the trust tree. Words and Character - they should mean something. Put enough dents into the trunk of the tree and it'll fall down and die. Perhaps it stems from a childhood trauma - like so many of these things we think are unique in our adult lives.... I used to run home every day hoping to see my father after school. He was never there.... and then only once he was there standing behind the front screen door when I got home.
And then, he was never there again.
Tap. Tap. Tap. Tap. Tap. Tapping my shoulders.
Believe it or not... It's been a little over a year that I've been making all of the hand-soap in our home (and homes of extended family). Due to experiencing some very extreme prolonged stress (and then ending up with PTSD - had over a year of EMDR therapy with an excellent army veteran guy, so feeling much better), I ended up with head-to-toe psoriasis in 2018.
Then I found out I was pregnant. High risk pregnancy due to lots of things going on. (Don't worry, #theQuinoa is doing awesomely awesome.)
Then I learned about all the literal "crap" and chemicals that go into soap. ----> So that was it, I decided, we literally needed to "clean up" at home. Yea no more store bought shampoo nor conditioner for me. No more store bought body soap. I think I still smell ok. Hey, I'm Korean - so I got lucky in a lot of ways. I learned about the ingredients that go into soaps. I read this giant book about essential oils. Then I started selling the soap (small supply, not full time, just for kicks). These days, the soap is going by much more quickly with everyone washing their hands and faces multiple times a day, every day - I think about how many exposures are we getting to the harsh chemicals. All of those chemicals end up in the sewers...
Things to think about - are you using clean soap to clean these days? Look at the ingredients.
Anyways, one of my "hobbies" 2018-present that I wanted to share. Crazy how little we know and how much we assume in the things we do every single day.
Next on the list... figuring out gardening. I've never ever had a green thumb... any tricks? If I had even more time, I'd love to have chickens and fresh eggs. I know a bunch of y'all have done that - and I'm so jealous.
Maybe I'll trade you handmade CLEAN SOAP for FRESH EGGS?
PS. Or trade you SOAP for a cool-er logo? Thoughts on the version 1 I created with free software?
Sharing some of the great work we're doing as the Cascadia Blockchain Council. Enjoy!
When it comes to blockchain, what it is, its use cases, and the industries using it, there’s a lot of information out there. You can admit it: maybe you feel mystified by blockchain technology.
Rest assured you’re not alone. While it’s true that blockchain gets a high volume of media coverage, that doesn’t mean it’s being written about clearly, comprehensively, or even accurately. No standard definition of blockchain exists globally, creating confusion and often misinformation that obscures this emerging technology’s legitimacy. This can hinder the policymaking process, deter investors, and generally leave the massive potential of blockchain technology untapped.
This past one (1) year, I've learned a lot. October 2018 to October 2019, I've learned an incredible amount about me, my relationships, recovering from significant challenges, the meaning of life, and much more:
Want the abbreviated version of what I've learned this past year? The summary is that the magic key ingredient to everything is empathy. Most of us are trying to make a mark, to do something with life, and to be a good valuable member of the community. Sometimes, a person may get wrapped up in the chaos they are in and respond too quickly. Another time, a person may poke a bear a little too hard with a stick that is too sharp and prickly. Emotions are real - and it's very important to not let the emotions get the best of us. Don't forget to breathe and find empathy.
My last post was my best 3 AM attempt to synthesize all of the voices and put into one holistic map of what’s going on locally in Seattle. We as humans, myself included, are bombarded with noise all day long - the billboard signs, the yard signs, the Facebook and Twitter feeds, emails, and yes, even getting unsolicited text messages from candidates (not cool = Tammy Morales). It’s increasingly difficult to find that quiet thinking time. It’s very difficult to figure out who has what incentives, why are they pushing a particular candidate (or not), and what is most important for me and my community.
My last post upset some people - even upset some friends. Hopefully, we can disagree and still like each other.
Here are five additional thoughts on the topic of Ari Hoffman and Civic Discourse:
We are all human. Likely, we all want the same things for ourselves and each other. Let’s start there, in the name of humanity -- and then work to figure out the details, the different approaches and ideas, and get there, together.
I actually pushed hard for several weeks in February, March and April of this year about running for Seattle City Council this year. Yes, while very pregnant with #theQuinoa. The timing did not work out. I have political interests for the future, yes.
Promised on our podcast episode of Windshield Time, "Ray Dalio Report, Poopcoin, and Local Politics" that I'd share this, so here it is.
Why now? Here's what we've experienced as a family, all in the last 1.5 - 2 years that's caused my strong attention to our local political scene in Seattle:
Here's what I think. Those in positions of public service, do not seem to understand that public service is about stewardship and taking careful care of our communities. I am very skeptical that many who are in Seattle City Council positions or that are running for Seattle City Council positions are doing so because they want to serve - and more for the $100,000+ salary that it comes with. Many are running for the pay-raise. Maybe some have run for the political platform and access. What we need is stewardship. Stewardship. Stewardship. Stewardship. Servant leadership. "The careful and responsible management of something entrusted to one's care" is how Merriam-Webster defines Stewardship. Do a job so carefully that it's left in an even better state than when you originally were entrusted with it. As Seattle, that's what is missing.
So, there are endorsements and voter guides being published left and right. Liberal. Conservative. Facebook. Media. Pamphlets. I took what I have seen so far, and threw it into a spreadsheet. Excel. For transparency, I added a column for where I am leaning towards today - it may change by the time I fill out the ballet. The lens I share/vote from, is in this post above. I want to be able to safely take my children to the playground. I do not want to worry about my family's safety. I want to see the active stewardship of our city - by the City Council and everyone in the community. I found and like this resource that seems to easily list the data on all the candidates here.
Another great tool to help you figure out who you want to vote for is Align Vote. Here's the link.
Here's my spreadsheet, along with my thoughts:
My current vote-leanings and thoughts:
There it is. You may strongly disagree or agree with my votes or thoughts. Always happy to chat and learn more - hopefully, via a mutually respectful conversation.
Recognize the people in the image above?
Yes. That's my husband, Dae (aka @LuggageDonkey) on the left, me on the right.
Back when we had just started dating, my husband introduced me to the idea of "windshield time". Knowing is half the battle - knowing the idea of windshield time allows us to intentionally use it with each other. Dae uses it to catch up and bond with his aging father (who is now 79 years old). I use it with colleagues to prepare for meetings when driving together to a meeting.
I never thought I'd actually work with my husband... and here we are. We've argued and fought, and battled our way to actually LAUNCHING the pilot podcast episode this week. WHOO-HOO! I wish you could have seen his face on Tuesday - Dae was so happy. He was beaming about the beautiful weather, the view of Mount Rainier that was magnificent as we were driving to a meeting. We're on anchor.fm now. Check us out - give it a listen, send us some good mojo/feedback/ratings if you can to help us out. Thank you so much!
Can't believe we actually got this done. Whew!
Here's the link: https://anchor.fm/windshieldtime206.
For my next post, I'll work on a list of quick early lessons that I've picked up in working with my husband. We both have strong opinions and personalities - and we are married, live together, and have two very young children together. We're both sleep deprived. That makes for an interesting mix.
Hope you like it.
P.S. Second pilot episode of Windshield Time going live today!
I saw this image fly by my eyes at about 330AM this morning - and I saved it as a reminder that I want to share/write about this... A LOT MORE ABOUT THIS.
Many of us humans, we have our dark down days. Some have them more than others. At my worst, I think I did not leave my room/bed/apartment for weeks. Some times, the idea of being alive is just so exhausting. Some times, I am able to push myself into being somewhat functional, going through the motions of a fully productive day - only doing what is absolutely necessary to not let anything blow up. Other times, I've written long goodbye letters to my husband and family - only to "wake up" and throw it away. I even daydreamed about getting in the car, alone, and driving endlessly on the highway to just go away from this surreal non-reality reality I was living in.
I had a really tough time with postpartum depression with our first baby. Really bad. I had no idea how bad it was at the time. Only looking back today, do I realize how deep in the depths of velvety despair I was living in day to day, night after night, month after month. To help myself with this newest baby who was recently born, I did things differently.
Five Things I'm Doing Differently with Our Second Baby to Avoid Postpartum Depression:
Having a baby - it's like the whole family getting hit by a bus. For the mother who just gave birth, it's like getting hit by the bus a few more times. The physical and mental demands are big - and not knowing any better, I really struggled with recovery with our first baby. This second baby has been easier in so many ways, and more difficult in other (like having survived the unplanned c-section, that got infected... more on that some other time.)
Ask for help.
Accept and embrace the help.
Don't add more stress than is really needed.
Eat/sleep as much as you can.
Have strong mental and visual anchors to stay strong daily.
Bar Rescue has become an integral part of my morning routine with the Quinoa in the past several weeks since he's been born.
Bar Rescue. I kind of laugh right now realizing how much time I've spent half-watching/listening to this show. Maybe Quinoa has been absorbing some of the lessons.
At first, it started as this random, mindless thing that was (very un-seriously) randomly on one day when I was feeding our newborn - that I kept on watching day after day after day. I don't watch it on weekends. Now having seen at least 20 episodes to date, there's definitely a formula and pattern - and I've extracted the takeaways for you here. These takeaways are actually applicable to the world of entrepreneurship and startup, too.
8 Lessons I've Learned from Bar Rescue:
And looking at it - yea, these are lessons that also are core to running any business well.
There you have it. Bar Rescue.