These are my personal notes from attending an interview with Danielle Booth today: Investing Notes: Danielle DiMartino Booth 9/25/2020. I think my fingers got a major workout for the 45 minutes she was being interviewed trying to type/write as much as I could from what she was saying. Super smart, savvy woman who obviously knows her stuff and does not apologize at all about her opinions. The "Speak Truth to Power" type of stuff - which I'm a personal big fan of. In a sea of men that were presenting today at this 3 day investor conference, it was so refreshing to see and hear her. 

Took a screenshot (sorry, not the most flattering I know if you see this Danielle) - see below. Here's a link to her bio too.

Anyways - hope these notes are helpful. Feedback welcome. Normally I wouldn't be sharing my notes with everyone so forgive me if they're a little rough. Trying something out (sharing).

​--Arry 

​Notes from the conference on this talk: Danielle DiMartino Booth will be interviewed live by our hosts, where she will give a brief overview of the recent global developments and their potential economic effects. She will undoubtedly discuss central bank action and the likely scenarios for equities, interest rates and various asset classes.

Her ability to create really useful analysis and her Markets Briefings was how she made her mark and gained the attention of the great investors (Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger for example). They saw some of her work and invited her to Omaha to meet with them personally (she couldn't because she had a 5 month old baby - and they said no problem, they would provide childcare so she took the whole family.) Worked in the Fed, Speaks truth AND she doesn’t do sensitivity training. :) LOL. In the Fall 2015, inside the Fed, she was given special instruction to pay attention to only Jay Powell. An outsider insider. Danielle was not liked at the Fed. 

Covid was a bump or the catalyst, from October 2018. She really understands the markets and the behaviors, the impact to the market. Jay Powell really understands the credit markets. What’s going to happen going forward does she think? A doomsday policy was in place after junk bond issuance freezing. May 2019, Neiman Marcus issued debt and the bond market froze. Jay Powell talked about easing so the markets over again. Again, there already was a doomsday policy. Morgan Stanley did the math. Jay Powell already knew TRIPLE B was an accident happening. Any downgraded debt was eligible for purchase by the Fed — so even if anything was junk, the investors had to treat it with respect.

The problem is that today, the market is losing confidence. Jay Powell cannot create cashflow. He hates Trump (even though he’s a Republican). He will not buy stocks 39 days before an election. Optimically and narratively it’s more damning. It’s ready to deploy - but he will likely do nothing. He will not do negative interest rates. Other countries can. Everything will break. Someone needs to have a reference free rate. 

Jay Powell spoke yesterday. Downside risk is out there without further federal aid. The Fed is begging congress to do something. The growth of fed balance sheet is correlated with the S&P. The Fed wants more stimulus. “I wouldn’t say we are out of ammo”. Did he say it? He kind of did. They need “product” = They need “paper”. 

Is the Fed influenced by the president? Danielle says no. Jay is afraid of the credit markets. He doesn’t care about supporting Trump. One thing to note, is that Munichen and Powell speak the same language. What the Fed is doing is doing now against the law. During WWII there was yield control and there was a cap. The Fed and the Government were severed in 1951 - Fed was separated from government. There was an accord. Now because of what's going on, future politicians will have to RE-separate the Fed to be nonpolitical. 

Rhethoric today for Powell, is one of his biggest tools. The briefcase indicator. Powell likes to “play” with investors. What happens if the investing public loses confidence in the Fed? You’re already seeing that. He blows it on Jackson Hole on August 27. The whole world freaked out as a regime change. F1c statement to 2023, with a target of 1.7%. Market took a step back. The Fed, before this rhetoric, the Fed had been buying up all kinds of stuff. The Fed is creating the narrative. 26 million people are collecting unemployment, when there’s deflation knocking on the door. Powell is trying to bring up inflation. Rent is coming down. Housing is the main # into every model. 

The Fed gauges inflation how? Fed has to hide behind inflation. Our health care inflation is not medicare/medicaid rates. They know that. They know we spend more on housing. They have to have this broken metric to support the Contant QE. They can’t change this. They are trapped. QE is important. They cannot turn the facilities, they cannot turn off the printing presses. If they decide to become the printing press for hire. We’re going to go from deflation too STAGflation. 

What is the breaking point that will push yields? Traders are all waiting for this. Dallas, Scottsdale - Jay Powell has created the housing boom. The Housing is the most leading of all sectors. He bought all mortgage back securities in 5 minutes. You have rates of 1.99%. Ed Pinto (Fannie’s former economist). IN 6 months, cash out refinancing is HOT. The appraisals are not even happening. Fed is creating the narrative that there is this hot market. Wealthy people are renting homes for $75k. People who have money? FHA lending is still 3.5% down — people who are not wealthy are hurting. If you see the riots now, it’s going to be worse in March. Once banks can start to foreclose - this is going to cause mayhem. This is all caused by the Fed. 

You’re bullish precious metals? Gold? What will drive prices higher. Right now investors are going after the traditional next. Miniature repeat of March/April 2020. People are calling bluff of Fed and selling Gold. Gold is still outperforming in both deflationary and inflationary markets, and with volatility. If you’re looking for protection - Buy the Move. 

How do you feel about cryptocurrencies? The trading community is favoring it as a hedge. It’s like TikTok instead of the walkman. People that want to make a name for themselves buy Bitcoin. The old people want Gold. If we go over the line into quantum and it becomes more economical to mine this stuff. People are disgusted with the fiat currency. Danielle owns gold.

Lot of people look at what the Fed is doing, expanding the balance sheet. $1.5Billion/hour worldwide is what is being printed. Will asset prices will go higher? Is this a V shaped recovery? No, it’s a VERY K SHAPED RECOVERY. Small businesses hire most of the Americans and have been left behind. Great innovations. Great new industries. Lots of people left behind. The K may not be permanent. Raymond James, law firms are laying off. Indeed.com — job postings for high income are down 24% year over year. If we have more white collar jobs lost, then we’re in trouble. The stimulus really helped - if you see white collar layoffs, they the K will not happen. It’ll be a W shape. 

What about Japan and the bank of Japan? The rates are at 0. US to Japan is apples and oranges, but is there anything to compare? Yes and no. The No is that the fact about 1/3 of treasuries are owned by foreigners. It’s owned by the post office. Banks own 40% of CLOs. Good luck Japan. We are not Japan in the sense that we don’t have a long runway to start the printing presses because we pushed it so far. We are not at the point to being a recovery. Starting points matter. It’d be more convenient if we were Japan. The whole world is in recession. Japan is going in and out of recession despite it all. Nothing cataclysmic has happened - they’re an innovative country that’s moved that innovation to China. @bondstrategist on Twitter — sent out a poll a few weeks ago. We believe we’re in the Great Financial Crisis 2.0 because of the Credit issue. 

Is there a way for the Fed to get out of the box? They keep buying ever increasing debt. She wrote a book “fed up” as she’s not a fan of the Fed. That’s the trillion dollar question? The answer is you have to look at 2019. Russell 2000 and the broader stock have not ever gotten back to ATH’s off 2018, when the Fed tried to get out of it. They think they can do this for 10 years. I don’t think the market will not allow it. Bondage vigilantes have been hibernating for a long time - they will come out. The Fed can continue this for much longer - what they want us to believe. As long as there’s deflation, they will continue.

If Biden wins? Remember, the debt ceiling was passed - it was because the Democrats asked for no debt ceiling until 2021. From now until June 2021, there’s no debt ceiling. The bond investors will hit their pain threshold soon. Who knows when or what will happen.

How to find Danielle? Come to Quillintelligence.com — we publish/write every day. Macro investing is hot again. Data means something now again. They put unvarnished best research. She says @dimartinobooth follow on Twitter. 

As an insider at the Fed, is the plunge protection thing real at the Treasury? It is. It’s not inside the Fed. It involves more than the Fed and Treasury. It’s like you need a Lehman Brothers. That’s because they already had the Doomsday plan ready to go. 

Hi, All:

These are my personal notes from a talk I attended from the Investment Institute: Investing Notes: Brady Dougan 9/24/2020. I decided to attend this one because SPACs (Special Purpose Acquisition Companies) are all the rage right now and VERY INTERESTING as a vehicle for cash preservation (with some upside), and also for fundraising (as a company who's ready to scale and interested in doing an IPO (Initial Public Offering - when a company goes from being private to public), with a lot more support). SPACs remind me of the ICO (Initial Coin Offering) world, from which I got my first taste of this. They are sometimes called "Blank Check Companies". Some people will criticize and ridicule it. I am a believer and think this is a trend that'll be sticking around. 

Hope these notes are helpful to someone out there. Feedback always welcome.

--Arry 

Here are the bios of the folks that were in the presentation:
​
Brady Dougan (Interviewee)
Brady Dougan is an American banker and CEO of Exos. From 2007 to 2015, he was the Chief Executive Officer of Credit Suisse. Before this, Dougan was CEO of Investment Banking and acting CEO of Credit Suisse Americas.   After starting his career in the derivatives group at Bankers Trust, Dougan was hired by Allen Wheat to join Credit Suisse Financial Products in 1990. In 1996 he was named Head of the Equities division, a position he held for five years before being appointed Global Head of the Securities division in 2001. From 2002 to July 2004, he was Co-President, Institutional Services at Credit Suisse First Boston, and from 2004 until the merger with Credit Suisse in May 2005, he was Chief Executive Officer of Credit Suisse First Boston. Dougan received a BA in Economics in 1981 from the University of Chicago and an MBA in Finance in 1982 from the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. 
 
Ted Seides (Interviewer)
Ted Seides, CFA is the Founder of Capital Allocators LLC, which he created in 2016 to explore best practices in the asset management industry from the perspective of asset owners, asset managers, and other relevant players. He hosts the Capital Allocators podcast and serves as an advisor to allocators and asset managers. Previously, Ted was a founder and served as President and Co-Chief Investment Officer of Protégé Partners, LLC, where he spent 14 years at a leading multi-billion-dollar alternative investment firm that invested in and seeded hedge funds. Ted began his career in 1992 under the tutelage of David Swensen at the Yale University Investments Office. During his five years at Yale, Ted focused on external public equity managers and internal fixed income portfolio management. Following business school, he spent two years investing directly at two of Yale’s managers.

Brady Dougan Talk notes:

What is the functionality of financial institutions? What are the aspects of a bank that you took to Exos? Answer: The basic function is to intermediate the financial flows, and to do so in a productive way. This can be done a lot more efficiently through modern technology:

• Can do it all faster and more efficiently.
• Can do new things too.
• Platform play was important. 
• Lots of experience on the structuring side.
• Example - construction finance is an area of focus, has technology to track payments/data and allows business at scale. 
• Has algorithmic training business too.

SPAC investing opportunity. How to approach framework for investment fund in SPACs.

Then he talks about a special fund that Exos and Morgan Creek are doing together. It's called the "SPAC Plus Fund":

• Focus on short term relatively liquid cash safe vehicle. 
• SPACs are very interesting. They’re listed equities and trade on exchanges. 
  • First part of their life is very much like a fixed income.
  • Do an IPO, take the money and put it into a trust
  • When then do the acquisition, then they announce the acquisition.
    • If fail to do an acquisition, then investors get money back.
    • Fixed income protection on the downside.
  • If successful acquisition, then sell the stock at a profit.
  • Downside is the treasury with upside.
• Monthly liquidity.
• Is it a vehicle/type of asset? 
  • Instrument that optimizes for all the players involved.
  • Good return for investors.
  • Great vehicle for sponsors (management team of SPACs) gives them capital to deploy.
  • Good for the acquired companies. 
  • Very efficient and positive way to take companies public, good way to deploy the cash, manage cash.
• The market has graduated
  • We have high flyer companies - Virgin Galactic, etc… are using it as a vehicle. 
  • There are not many big losers.
  • People who take the biggest risk are the management team that create the SPACs. They’re 100% at risk. They’re the most knowledgable, etc…
  • They get great returns when they are successful.
    • They pay all the fees to take the company public - underwriting for IPO, the legal fees, etc…. All the costs of pursuing the acquisition 12-24 months. Fees on SPACs are 2% typically.
  • Promote or 20% that the sponsors own in the continuing business after the acquisition. There’s substantial dilution still. There’s fees. 
  • Opportunity to be a part of the initial private equity pool into SPACs too.
• Diversification is important
• Is this a fad?
  • No - likely be very durable. Serves everyone well.
  • It is a very interesting category of assets to have some exposure to
• SPAC to buy Bitcoin???
  • It’s a definitely a newer market.
  • It’s one of the reasons as an asset category it’s really important. 
  • Professionally managed asset is a good way to do that.
  • Access to mining as well.
• What’s the catch to SPAC+?
  • There isn’t it….
  • It’s an area you have to entertain any possibility 

What about crypto/stablecoins/etc?

• Regulatory side will develop and is slowing things down a little.
• The regulatory world is getting a lot of it right.

How do you allocate your time across all these different things?

• As CEO of Credit Suisse, my calendar was set for the next 2 years.
• With Exos, that’s not the case. Allows me to be very nimble and flexible. I have to be very responsive and flexible with my time. How to build new businesses or expand businesses. Lot is working with the team here. 

What’s the biggest unexpected challenge of being a CEO of Exos versus Credit Suisse?

• Brady has been surprised at how slow moving large organizations are. 

Here are some recent "Investing Notes" from two talks I attended this past week by Mark Yusko. I'm a very big fan of Mark Yusko. We personally had a chance to meet him at a Morgan Creek investor luncheon in early 2019 (I think I was pregnant with our second baby when we first met him). He is the first person I've ever met that has managed or manages more than a BILLION dollars. Mind blowing the number of zeros. And, Mark was the first interview we did on our podcast. I can remember being so nervous. He turned out to be a really nice person, with some really good words of wisdom. One of my favorite words he said that I say quite frequently, is "health is wealth". 

You'll see that Mark's general tone is that of a bear... he's bearish for sure. 

Link to the original Mark Yusko podcast interview (episode 22), if anyone wants to check him out. We spent a lot of the time trying to learn about who he is as a person, how he thinks, how his mind is wired, and his character - not just him as an investor. We have the interview on over 12 different audio platforms, including: 

• Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/mark-yusko-full-interview-getting-to-know-real-founder/id1468319501?i=1000446288076
• iHeart: https://www.iheart.com/podcast/269-windshield-time-studio-47443086/episode/mark-yusko-full-interview-getting-to-47477226/
• Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/1qt80EThsWw7T9VTaa5lGd

Also, Mark Yusko's bio here, if you want to know more about him. 

Attended a webinar (monthly) called HedgeD from Morgan Creek Capital today and took some investing notes that I want to share with my "Women Who Invest" Facebook group. Didn't see a good way to share it inside of Facebook - so putting my notes here for all to see. Sharing is caring, right? Here are my notes (along with my commentary).

So the market's going all crazy right now - new all time highs, everyone is a day trader, and looking a little more closely at these stock prices, the market caps are 20x, 28x, way higher than even revenues. Just so crazy expensive - and yet, when I look at these stock trading groups, people are pumping their hard earned dollars into these over priced assets. I worry.

October 2018-Present. The S&P is up 10%, which is about 5% a year (not really great). In reality, the money is actually down 40% (people just don't realize this yet.) During that same period, GLD is up 60%. Aren't we supposed to "buy cheap, sell high". People are buying high these days.... and they'll be forced to sell low. Again, in that same time period, Gold Corp is up 155%, Newman Gold is up 110%, Amazon up 55%, C Limited (Asia) is up 900%, Twilio is up 180%, and JD.com (Chinese) is up 120%. 

So passive funds (index funds) are going crazy too. Everyone is putting money in, and by everyone, it's the regular people (who are not your trained professional investors). Index funds do well when the money supply is high (like right now). So more money = higher prices. Eventually, the money supply will slow down and this will go negative, fast. And so if you take a step back, and look at the S&P for example over the last 20 years, compound return is only 5%. That's TERRIBLE. 

Stocks are even worse. People are buying things at stupid prices. Snowflake is the poster child for this craziness (it's at 227 times earnings or revenue.) --- WAY TOO EXPENSIVE. Zoom is at 100x revenue. And on top of it, everyone is being the same thing (the FAB4) - Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Facebook.... the Valuations are too high. It's not sustainable.

Remarks on Wall Street versus Main Street. Wall Street are the professional investors. Main Street are the speculators and newly-minted "day traders". All of this money is going into stocks - and what people need to do is take a step back and realize, there's no market recovery happening. COVID19 is exacerbating inequality everywhere. Only 41% of Americans had ANY savings at all before COVID (so there are a LOT of people hurting right now.). This year alone, we're going to see over 46% of Americans become food insecure. 30% of kids that are supposed to be remote learning don't have a laptop or internet. Those that have will do even better, and those that do not have will do even worse. He said it'll be a k-shaped recovery.

The American economy is driven by consumer spending. Again, no market recovery coming. Consumer spending (even with perceived increases this summer) is still down 30% from April. High income earners are spending as a percentage 50% LESS than low income earners. Let that sink in. That means less high income earners traveling, eating out, going to bars, shopping - that hurts small businesses, restaurants, who hire even more of the low income earners. So, if Consumer Spending = GDP = S&P..... then the S&P will be in BIG trouble very shortly.

So why are the stock prices even higher? And a significant amount of the stock is going up for non earning companies. This is not sustainable. 47% of the Russell 2000 are NONearners. 15-20% of US companies are NOT profitable, they have more debt than profit (called "zombie companies" or "Stocks"). The Stock market is a raging mania and being driven by "retail investor" or more precisely, speculators. For instance, there were 3,000,000 NEW first time investors on Robinhood. And over 20% of all stock trading is coming from retail. On the otherwise, stock buybacks are not happening as much any more. Companies are not buying stocks. Bankruptcies and bad debt is soaring. And it's starting to trend that Biden will likely be the winner of the election, which means, HIGHER TAXES. Equity market is falling down.

There are still good companies out there. Look for EBITA margins greater than 50%. Look for companies that are in the digitization, consumerization off financial products, payments, etc.... you can access them through relationships (private equity side). 

Then they went into their sales schpeel on hedge funds. Average hedge funds are up 3.9%, and the best are up 30%, while the average stock has had almost NO return over the past 3 years. Choose wisely. 

Hope these investing notes from the webinar help give at least a perspective and is informational. 

--Arry 
P.S. Let me know if any questions or if you want to connect. I'm happy to connect you with these folks as well. Sharing is caring! Also check out the podcast, HedgeD -- their first interview is really good with John Burbank. 

I just read The Profile by Polina Marinova Pompliano (see above photo) and "Words and Character" do not carry enough weight these days. By the way, I highly recommend subscribing to The Profile, if you haven't yet. I was a fan when she did the Term Sheet at Fortune Magazine - and continue to be a fan. Today's Profile Dossier is on Hugh Jackman. I love this actor... and after reading about him today, I love him even more.

At the end of the article, there is a list of "techniques to try".... and one of them really hit a chord with me. Big deep one that's been on my mind a lot recently. 

From about 2007 to about 2015, I had a really good friend. We met through salsa dancing and I remember just being so moved by the fresh energy and zest for life she used to carry. She's off the charts amazing as a dancer too - I'd often sit on the side watching her. She had a way of dancing that was so detailed and natural - it was like watching an exotic car move effortlessly in a sea of Toyotas and Hondas. Beautiful. I tend to just fall in love with the people I bring into my life - and perhaps I put them on a pedestal too. Wonderful treasures of laughter, hugs, memories, and more. 

We went to each other's weddings. Our friends became her friends, and vice versa.

Then it started (again). I'm not sure if it's me. It's happened several times now where since I'm the only thing common, I can't help but think it's me. Maybe I'm not good enough. Maybe I'm just not that interesting. Maybe no one really wants to be friends with me in the first place. Am I even worth anyone's time? It's a downward spiral of sadness, and self-pity.

We'd be making plans to visit San Francisco, and of course, I'd send a note to my usual favorite friends to see while there. I'm usually an introvert and seek more of those intimate conversations with family/friends. Only if time is truly limited, I'll throw everyone into one big dinner or drinks...

She was on this list of friends I truly enjoyed seeing. The first time it happened, we were supposed to meet for a drink at happy hour. Then about an hour before, she was tired so wanted to push it to later. It became a dinner plan. Then around dinner, it became dessert. Then around dessert time, it became after dinner drinks... then late night drinks... then the next day.

My husband also thought it was weird. We brushed it off the first few times as oh well, the timing must have been difficult... oh bummer, they must be really busy... ...

​Words and Character. Shouldn't they mean something?

Then on subsequent attempts on following trips to San Francisco, plans would be made and broken again and again. And the questions of, who else is going to be there? Is anyone else going to be meeting up with us? ... Is there anyone notable that she would miss meeting if she didn't come out to meet up with me? ...

It just was not working out. I suppose I could have confronted her candidly about what I was experiencing. Then again, the relationship at that point now had a giant chasm of doubt in between. I did not trust that I knew anything about her anymore. The character and values that are so important to me didn't seem to match. Then I had to make a conscious decision and remove her from my mental list of folks that I wanted to see, and/or wanted to see me... I took it as perhaps I'm just not that exciting enough for her. Perhaps not beautiful enough. Perhaps not influential enough. Just not enough - and perhaps most definitely, we're not a fit for each other anymore. It was causing me so much heartache so I quietly went a different direction.

Experiences where family and friends don't keep their word puts a dent in the trust tree. Words and Character - they should mean something. Put enough dents into the trunk of the tree and it'll fall down and die. Perhaps it stems from a childhood trauma - like so many of these things we think are unique in our adult lives.... I used to run home every day hoping to see my father after school. He was never there.... and then only once he was there standing behind the front screen door when I got home.

And then, he was never there again.

​Tap. Tap. Tap. Tap. Tap. Tapping my shoulders.

Warmly,
​Arry 

Believe it or not... It's been a little over a year that I've been making all of the hand-soap in our home (and homes of extended family). Due to experiencing some very extreme prolonged stress (and then ending up with PTSD - had over a year of EMDR therapy with an excellent army veteran guy, so feeling much better), I ended up with head-to-toe psoriasis in 2018.

Then I found out I was pregnant. High risk pregnancy due to lots of things going on. (Don't worry, #theQuinoa is doing awesomely awesome.)

Then I learned about all the literal "crap" and chemicals that go into soap. ----> So that was it, I decided, we literally needed to "clean up" at home. Yea no more store bought shampoo nor conditioner for me. No more store bought body soap. I think I still smell ok. Hey, I'm Korean - so I got lucky in a lot of ways. I learned about the ingredients that go into soaps. I read this giant book about essential oils. Then I started selling the soap (small supply, not full time, just for kicks). These days, the soap is going by much more quickly with everyone washing their hands and faces multiple times a day, every day - I think about how many exposures are we getting  to the harsh chemicals. All of those chemicals end up in the sewers... 

Things to think about - are you using clean soap to clean these days? Look at the ingredients.

Anyways, one of my "hobbies" 2018-present that I wanted to share. Crazy how little we know and how much we assume in the things we do every single day.

Next on the list... figuring out gardening. I've never ever had a green thumb... any tricks? If I had even more time, I'd love to have chickens and fresh eggs. I know a bunch of y'all have done that - and I'm so jealous.

Maybe I'll trade you handmade CLEAN SOAP for FRESH EGGS? ​

--Arry

​PS. Or trade you SOAP for a cool-er logo? Thoughts on the version 1 I created with free software? 

Sharing some of the great work we're doing as the Cascadia Blockchain Council. Enjoy!
​
When it comes to blockchain, what it is, its use cases, and the industries using it, there’s a lot of information out there. You can admit it: maybe you feel mystified by blockchain technology.
​
Rest assured you’re not alone. While it’s true that blockchain gets a high volume of media coverage, that doesn’t mean it’s being written about clearly, comprehensively, or even accurately. No standard definition of blockchain exists globally, creating confusion and often misinformation that obscures this emerging technology’s legitimacy. This can hinder the policymaking process, deter investors, and generally leave the massive potential of blockchain technology untapped. 

This past one (1) year, I've learned a lot. October 2018 to October 2019, I've learned an incredible amount about me, my relationships, recovering from significant challenges, the meaning of life, and much more:

1. No matter what happens, I feel comfortable with my choices to date. Not everyone agrees with me all the time - and that is okay with me. I need to live life and be true to the foundational values that are core to who I am, and to do it with integrity. They say, "listen to your gut" - I know that I need to be attuned to my gut. I've been practicing it, a lot.
2. I know that in the hardest of times, I will fight as hard as I can for what I believe to be the right thing to do. I'm a warrior. To steal the words from a mentor of mine, Empathy Warrior. I will go to the ends of the earth for my love, our children, our family, our tribes, and our mission in life. I'm a fighter that has now learned how to be a peace maker with myself, others, and more.
3. Life is an absolute gift. Spend as much of every moment with the people that matter most in life - and work to amplify only what should be amplified. 
4. Creating life is an absolute gift. I've written about the wretched heartache and loss of miscarriage. Being blessed with two of the most amazing young boys has made me feel so much gratitude and fullness that nothing else the world could give me. I would love to have the opportunity to have more children, if it is possible.
5. Marriage to Dae has been my life's greatest commitment. It's very hard at (a few) times, and it's amazing at (many) other times. Marrying the right person is critical - and it's not based on height, income, pedigree, or anything like that at all. It takes a lot of self awareness, flexibility, empathy and listening, and true partnership of mind, body, emotion, mission, and vision. How lucky am I that he persisted, week after week, month after month despite my ignorant declarations that I would never ever marry him. :)
6. Stories matter, a lot. The internal stories we tell ourselves to tie the missing context as very young children become the living stories of our adult selves. Word choices matter. Where we use these words, whether in public forums or behind closed doors in secret matters. How we use these words, whether to slash at someone's soul or to bridge ideas together, matters. Why we use words at all, whether to add value to the community or to get something off the chest, also matters. Not everything has to be said - and yet, sometimes over communicating means everything. 
7. Pacing makes a huge difference. Pacing means having the control and skill to be able to throttle velocity. Pacing means even in the midst of chaos, being able to find time for slow thinking, meditation, and breathing. Space. (S)Pace. Take an hour off, a day off, a week off, a year off - whatever you can afford and make happen. I've been lucky to have been able to take a year off, and it's literally been one of the best gifts I never knew I needed. 
8. In chaos, stand still. In chaos, the human inclination is the run fast(er), scream, yell, and fight. I've learned, do the opposite. Stand still. Walk slower. Take a break. Hug your loved ones. The truth, what matters most will become crystal clear, and chaos will become tranquility. Every time I've started using my sledge hammer in times of chaos, it's been destructive in a bad way. Every time I've held my tongue/slowed down/been intentionally quiet in times of chaos, it's been constructive in a very good way. "Go wide before you decide." 
9. Incentives drive everything. When alliances appear to be "random", when people go out of their way to show (or not show) their support, when "catch-22" conflicting situations arise, start by asking about each party's incentives. WIIFM. What's in it for them. Most people are just hungry - hungry for love, for attention, for recognition, for a paycheck, for a chance at opportunity. A few are plain greedy. 
10. Having a gratitude state of mind is like wearing rose-colored glasses. I am so thankful these days, and as a result, I am at peace with who I am and the state of life. No, that does not mean everything is going great. It means I am happy with the present. The colorful fall leaves are beautiful. Seeing how hard my husband works for our family's happiness makes me so grateful for his giving heart. Our sons are gifts - pure, loving, and curious. Our community has some very big hearted really good people in it. It really is a great time to be alive.

Want the abbreviated version of what I've learned this past year? The summary is that the magic key ingredient to everything is empathy. Most of us are trying to make a mark, to do something with life, and to be a good valuable member of the community. Sometimes, a person may get wrapped up in the chaos they are in and respond too quickly. Another time, a person may poke a bear a little too hard with a stick that is too sharp and prickly. Emotions are real - and it's very important to not let the emotions get the best of us. Don't forget to breathe and find empathy.

​--Arry 

My last post was my best 3 AM attempt to synthesize all of the voices and put into one holistic map of what’s going on locally in Seattle.  We as humans, myself included, are bombarded with noise all day long - the billboard signs, the yard signs, the Facebook and Twitter feeds, emails, and yes, even getting unsolicited text messages from candidates (not cool = Tammy Morales).  It’s increasingly difficult to find that quiet thinking time. It’s very difficult to figure out who has what incentives, why are they pushing a particular candidate (or not), and what is most important for me and my community.  
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My last post upset some people - even upset some friends.  Hopefully, we can disagree and still like each other.

Here are five additional thoughts on the topic of Ari Hoffman and Civic Discourse:

1. Public servants need to practice stewardship.  Public servants that hold office should hold the idea of stewardship as a core principle; it should be central to the why they get up every day to do the work they do for the community.  Stewardship. Reminder, Mirriam-Webster defines stewardship as “the careful and responsible management of something entrusted to one's care stewardship of resources.”  Resources like: publicly funded dollars, buildings, roads, the environment, and even people who reside in or work for that particular community.  Ari Hoffman has demonstrated through action, not just words, the principle of stewardship and discipline I expect to see from those that serve the community.  Some examples:
   1. Vandals caused over $230,000 in damages to a local Jewish cemetery, including strewn needles and bottles.  As a board member of this cemetery, Ari went above and beyond. He raised awareness. He went to the news for help. He went to the city for help.  He still has not gotten the support he originally sought. “Hoffman did share photos with KIRO 7 as proof that the cemeteries have been disrespected, needles near tombstones, feces discarded near them or simply left on top of grave plots. He also said empty bottles and discarded drug paraphernalia led him to believe some people were partying near the plots, “people are doing drugs off the tombstones.”  Most people forget the dead and elderly - what I see is a community and a man that shares a forgotten kind of respect for those that came before us.  Ari has a kind of stewardship that I want for our city; someone who will fight for everyone, even those who no longer have a voice to fight for themselves, like the human dead among us.
   2. On safe injection sites - a very political topic in Seattle - again Ari has demonstrated the kind of stewardship I want to see. Yes - there have been many studies that may prove that they work, and there may be a lot of benefits.  And yes, there are studies that show that they may not work (as in a new study in the International Study of Drug Policy). It’s still not actually clear if they work or not given inherent complexities. While seen as completely flabbergasting, Ari Hoffman is doing the right thing by pushing back on safe injection sites.  We should be questioning if what people want is a magic pill to solve the challenges and is that best magic pill, safe injection sites? Who wants the safe injection site down the street from where they live?  Who wants it in the neighborhood where playgrounds, children, and families strive to thrive? Key stewardship point: Ari Hoffman went even further by taking personal time and resources to go check out first hand to understand what safe injection sites are and whether it may or may not make sense.  He went to San Diego. He went to Vancouver, BC. Ari took personal time, and personal resources to go learn about the issue. Has any other candidate done that?   And yes, there are always at least three sides to any story - what he demonstrated again and again, is his willingness to do the hard work to think for himself. He speaks truth to power - even though many of us don’t want to hear it.  That’s stewardship. We may not all agree on his point of views or what he saw or the story he tells based on what he saw, we all have to agree that his kind of stewardship is what the community needs.
2. Is Ari Hoffman conservative? No and Yes. If you mean, what some people call “right-wing, MAGA and NRA loving Republican?  No. Conservative meaning preferring a sober and evidence-based, practical approach to finding solutions to problems?  Yes. How did this idea of Ari Hoffman being an ultra-conservative come about?
   1. The Stranger was founded by Tim Keck, who had previously co-founded the satirical newspaper The Onion, and cartoonist James Sturm. Its first issue came out on September 23, 1991. It calls itself "Seattle's Only Newspaper," an expression of its disdain for Seattle's two dailies (the Seattle Times and the now-defunct print edition of the Seattle Post-Intelligencer) and The Stranger's main rival, the Seattle Weekly. The paper regularly covers Seattle City Council politics.  The Stranger is generally very liberal and progressive in its perspectives.  The Stranger has positioned him as "ultra-conservative" - and unfortunately, people have taken that to be truth without actually looking to see if it is true.
   2. Ari Hoffman also has accepted all and ANY invitation for an interview.  This is NOT a politically accepted thing to do, especially if you are a candidate running for office.  Surprising to me, because in theory, isn’t it a good thing to be willing to have a conversation with every person (no matter what their beliefs are)?  What I’ve learned is that if you’re running for office in Seattle, you decline an interviews with the NRA for example. You decline to even have a conversation.  Ari didn’t. He thought for himself and went, that doesn’t make any sense. Isn’t it a good thing to have honest conversations, despite differences?  
   3. The topic of safe injection sites again.  In district two of Seattle, one of the most racial diverse, progressive districts here, most people are very liberal and very progressive - leaning towards “democratic socialism”.  It’s literally “not cool” to question if safe injection sites actually work. As one person wrote on my facebook page regarding Ari, “he is actively sharing opinions and his new video that is very much out of alignment on current best practices and research based approaches for homelessness. “  It hasn’t been proven yet.  How many of the folks that support safe injection sites want one  across the street from where they live? Then is the idea to support progressive ideas as long as they are placed “somewhere else”, not in our neighborhood?  Let’s be honest here.
3. Civic discourse is when people communicate with one another about the political, social, cultural or economic issues that their community face to begin a conversation or debate.  Today, in Seattle and beyond, most of us are afraid and wary about sharing our true thoughts about anything. A lot of people are hard-wired with all kinds of triggers and hence, a ready-to-wear angry emotional reaction to whomever or whatever source made the disagreeable statement.  This is not how civic discourse happens. We’re Democrat or Republican - ready to shut the other side down without even trying out a thought experiment to really consider what they are trying to say. Hey, remember, most of us don’t have all the right words and don’t know how to say something “the right way”.  We’re all trying. And while many of us are being re-trained to embrace diversity - diversity of color, race, sexual orientation, and more - most of us are absolutely hardwired to distance ourselves and reject ideological diversity. What’s wrong with learning more about the other very different person? What’s wrong with meeting with a die-hard NRA loving person to share disagreements and to talk about it?  What’s wrong with asking the “stupid question”? In business, it’s supposedly encouraged. What about in community and in politics?
4. We all live in bubbles.  There have been warnings here and there that say especially because of media and the social media algorithms, we are primed to exist in “bubbles” of only similar ideology and like-minded folks we agree with.  Every “like” in Facebook means you’ll see even more posts from that person or entity you already agree with. How do we combat bubbles? We have to actively seek opinions, media, and posts that are different than the ones you agree with. For example: Are you a die-hard Democrat?  Follow some die-hard Republicans.  
5. Character matters when I vote.  Safety for me is top of mind because of all the violence my family has personally experienced in the past couple of years.  I’m also looking at behaviors that indicate character. I’m looking at actions that demonstrate discipline and respect. I’m looking to find commonalities - like family orientation and having had children.  I’m looking at length of journey to date - I do NOT want someone who’s in the moonlight years of their career, I want candidates who have some life experience, have some good work experience, and are looking to leave a mark still in the world.  I want someone who will get up again and again after they’ve fallen. I want candidates that will speak truth to power, speak truth period, even if it is not the “PC” thing to say or do. Again, this is why, I’m voting for Ari Hoffman in District 2.  He’s a little flamboyant in his delivery and presentation. He’s a little bit like a bull in a China shop with his political skills. He’s like a gorilla who’s charging through brick walls and bashing down twine that’s in his way. That’s who I want in Seattle Council - fighting for safety, fighting for respect of our green spaces and parks, fighting for a little bit of common sense and practicality in finding the right kind of humane solutions for everyone.

At the end of the day, whether a person is old/young, white/black/yellow/green, Democrat/Republican, white collar/blue collar, citizen / immigrant - we are actually far more alike than different.  We are all human. If we start with that as the foundational place for any discussion, any disagreement, any kind of civic discourse - we’ll find that generally: 

• We ALL want and consider ourselves to be good people.
• We all want safe spaces for ourselves, our children, and our families.
• We all want safe, clean neighborhoods.
• We all want better lives for the poor, sick, and weak.
• We all want access to decent schools, education, and a way to grow.
• We all want access to reliable public/private transportation, roads, and more.
• We all want access to affordable, good homes.

We are all human.  Likely, we all want the same things for ourselves and each other.  Let’s start there, in the name of humanity -- and then work to figure out the details, the different approaches and ideas, and get there, together. 

​--Arry

I actually pushed hard for several weeks in February, March and April of this year about running for Seattle City Council this year.  Yes, while very pregnant with #theQuinoa.  The timing did not work out.  I have political interests for the future, yes.  

Promised on our podcast episode of Windshield Time, "Ray Dalio Report, Poopcoin, and Local Politics" that I'd share this, so here it is. 

Why now?  Here's what we've experienced as a family, all in the last 1.5 - 2 years that's caused my strong attention to our local political scene in Seattle:

1. My husband was held up at gunpoint by four (4), yes that's FOUR armed young men near our home.  You can imagine the horror when my husband gave me that update, waking me up in the middle of the night.  HORROR.  Complete horror.
2. My mother-in-law, aged 70+, was mugged, in the evening getting off the bus-line near our home.  Two young women, in fact, pushed her down, took her purse, and then... kicked her even more as she lay there.  She was very bruised up.  (WHY kick an old lady when she's down?)
3. Our home was completely burglarized.  They took pretty much everything you can think of - including shoes, Seahawks jerseys, and packed it all up in our own bags/suitcases. 
4. Homeless people camping out in our child's daycare playground.  No one wants to imagine strangers and homeless people camping out at the daycare.
5. Increased visual vandalism EVERYWHERE - every crevice, sign, highways, underpasses, and then some is seemingly covered in graffiti or trash in general.  This is a beautiful city - one I fell in love with almost 18 years ago when I moved to this city.  It was the cleanest, friendliest, and most amazing city I had ever seen. 

Here's what I think.  Those in positions of public service, do not seem to understand that public service is about stewardship and taking careful care of our communities.  I am very skeptical that many who are in Seattle City Council positions or that are running for Seattle City Council positions are doing so because they want to serve - and more for the $100,000+ salary that it comes with.  Many are running for the pay-raise.  Maybe some have run for the political platform and access.  What we need is stewardship.  Stewardship. Stewardship. Stewardship.  Servant leadership.  "The careful and responsible management of something entrusted to one's care" is how Merriam-Webster defines Stewardship.  Do a job so carefully that it's left in an even better state than when you originally were entrusted with it.  As Seattle, that's what is missing.

So, there are endorsements and voter guides being published left and right.  Liberal.  Conservative.  Facebook.  Media.  Pamphlets.  I took what I have seen so far, and threw it into a spreadsheet.  Excel.  For transparency, I added a column for where I am leaning towards today - it may change by the time I fill out the ballet.  The lens I share/vote from, is in this post above.  I want to be able to safely take my children to the playground.  I do not want to worry about my family's safety.  I want to see the active stewardship of our city - by the City Council and everyone in the community.  I found and like this resource that seems to easily list the data on all the candidates here.  

Another great tool to help you figure out who you want to vote for is Align Vote.  Here's the link. 

Here's my spreadsheet, along with my thoughts:

My current vote-leanings and thoughts:

• King County Prop 1: Parks, Recreation, Trails and Open Space Levy - Approve, even though I do not trust that we have "stewardship" of these funds happening.
• Port of Seattle Commissioner Pos 2 - Sam Cho
• Port of Seattle Commissioner Pos 5 - Fred Felleman
• Seattle City Council District 1 - Philip Tavel.  I personally believe that Lisa Herbold has not, and still does not demonstrate stewardship. I like Phil's talk of being equitable and effective.
• Seattle City Council District 2 - Ari Hoffman.  This is the only candidate that has actively and proactively demonstrated he has the discipline and stewardship I want in our city council.  He's got admirable grit, too - for literally having been picked on, and targeted in his campaigning.  I respect his tenacity and perseverance.  Resilience.  Mark Solomon, seemingly is a great candidate (in theory) - my spidey senses pick up that he's tired and not hungry enough to do the due diligence it takes to do the job thoughtfully.  Reminds me a little too much of Bruce Harrell (who I like as a person, and his prior service years.  He's tired and hence, retiring.).
• Seattle City Council District 3 - Pat Murakami.  Pragmatic.  Thoughtful responses who has a chance at looking at the community holistically from all sides.  Ami Nguyen and Eagan Orion seem great too - I am worried that their experience puts a heavy bias on them.  When I was doing my research to potentially run, I heard Ami was also pregnant like myself.  If so, huge props to her and her family for stepping up and actually running.
• Seattle City Council District 4 - Alec Pederson.  I appreciate that he cares about accountability.  I care about Stewardship.  I agree with Shaun Scott, that the taxes we currently have are very regressive.  It's true.  
• Seattle City Council District 5 - Ann Davison Sattler.  Caring about children, and low-income children wins my vote.  Society's top priority should be protecting our most innocent, future.
• Seattle City Council District 6 - Jay Fathi.  A collaborative approach that's about solving and delivering makes sound pragmatic sense.
• Seattle City Council District 7 - James Donaldson. I like his answer most, "Seattle birthed many of the greatest innovations, ground-breaking discoveries, and some of the largest companies, yet cannot meet basic civic needs."  I also like the idea of Jim Pugel.  His experience as a police chief and concerns about public safety.  Public safety is my top concern.  I like Michael George, too because his work experience matches up with, "Balancing inclusivity with neighborhood livability".    
• Seattle Proposition 1 Public Library Levy - Approve, even though I do not trust that we have "stewardship" of these funds happening.

There it is.  You may strongly disagree or agree with my votes or thoughts.  Always happy to chat and learn more - hopefully, via a mutually respectful conversation.  

​--Arry